Strategic planning of biomass and bioenergy technologies

Il dimensionamento di sistemi energetici sostenibili e rispettosi dell'ambiente è una sfida fondamentale che deve essere affrontata dalle nazioni di tutto il mondo. Questa sfida è particolarmente rilevante nei paesi in via di sviluppo, in quanto vi sono aree remote ancora non elettrificate, vi è una eccessiva dipendenza da fonti convenzionali di energia, si registra una carenza di risorse finanziarie e non sono sviluppate ed implementate adeguate politiche e regolamentazioni. L'obiettivo di questa tesi è lo sviluppo di una metodologia per la pianificazione strategica delle tecnologie basate su biomasse e bioenergie in genere, nei paesi in via di sviluppo. L'approccio seguito è quello di iniziare da un approccio generale e poi passare ad uno specifico contesto di applicazione, che nel caso in esame è la Colombia. Le metodologie sviluppate ed applicate nella tesi sono relative a quattro aree principali. In primo luogo, viene sviluppato un metodo per stimare l’attuale potenziale energetico della biomassa e la sua incertezza a livello nazionale, per tenere conto del fatto che la disponibilità e la qualità dei dati possono essere limitati. A questo scopo, si propone un approccio focalizzato sul tipo di risorsa e bottom-up, con analisi statistica che utilizza un algoritmo Monte Carlo. In secondo luogo, viene sviluppato un metodo per stimare il futuro potenziale energetico della biomassa e il cambiamento di uso del suolo, per paesi il cui mercato nazionale non influenza i mercati internazionali. Il metodo proposto è una combinazione di approcci focalizzati sul tipo di risorsa e guidati dalla domanda, in cui l'energia potenziale della biomassa è influenzato dalla domanda interna, dall’uso del suolo, dall'economia, dalla macroeconomia e dall'uso di biocarburanti globale. In terzo luogo, la tesi propone un metodo per tracciare la roadmap per l’utilizzo di tecnologie energetiche, adattato alle condizioni dei paesi in via di sviluppo, e una nuova strategia per costruire il consenso sulla base del metodo Delphi. Questi strumenti sono impiegati per la definizione di un piano per implementare tecnologie bioenergetiche sostenibili in Colombia fino al 2030. Il piano è costituito da una serie di obiettivi a lungo termine, di tappe, di barriere e di “azioni” individuate da più di 30 esperti per le diverse aree tecnologiche. In quarto luogo, viene sviluppato un modello generale di simulazione per valutare gli impatti che l’implementazione a lungo termine delle tecnologie bioenergetiche potrebbe causare su domanda e richiesta di energia, emissioni e uso del territorio a livello nazionale. Il metodo combina elementi sia quantitativi sia qualitativi. L'elemento qualitativo integra i risultati della tecnologia di sviluppo della roadmap con analisi di scenari per indagare varie storie con diverse ipotesi circa le azioni di politica energetica da attuare. L'elemento quantitativo comprende quattro strumenti integrati, vale a dire il modello di sistema energetico (ESM), l'uso del suolo e un modello di mercato (LUTM), un modello economico e un modello che tiene conto del clima. Questi strumenti servono per quantificare in modo integrato gli impatti conseguenti all’attuazione di diversi scenari sul sistema energetico, le emissioni e l’uso del suolo a livello nazionale, così come i legami con l'economia e il clima. I risultati dello studio per il caso della Colombia indicano che la diffusione di tecnologie per la produzione di biometano, la generazione di energia e la cogenerazione dovrebbero essere le tecnologie sulle quali investire per il futuro, in quanto permettono di ridurre le emissioni di metano, la sostituzione dei combustibili fossili, la riduzione delle emissioni di CO2 e la massimizzazione della riduzione di gas serra per suolo incrementale utilizzato per la produzione di bioenergia.The design of sustainable, environmentally friendly energy systems which have adequate capacity is a critical challenge faced by nations across the globe. This challenge is compounded in developing countries, which contain with remote areas yet to be connected to the grid, an over- dependence on conventional sources of energy, a shortage of financial resources, and, limited supporting policies and legislation. The objective of this thesis is to develop methods for strategic planning of biomass and bioenergy technologies in developing countries. The approach followed is to start from the general and move to the specific. After a general formulation of methods, an exemplary case study of Colombia is presented. The formulated methods cover four main areas. Firstly, a method to estimate the current biomass energy potential and its uncertainty at a country level is formulated when availability and quality of data are limited. For this purpose, a bottom-up resource-focused approach with statistical analysis using a Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed. Secondly, a method to estimate the future biomass energy potential and land use change is formulated for countries with domestic markets unable to influence international markets. The proposed method is a combination of resource-focused and demand driven approaches, in which the biomass energy potential is influenced by the internal demand, land use, economics, macroeconomics and global biofuel use. Thirdly, a method for energy technology roadmapping adapted to the conditions of developing countries and a new strategy to build consensus based on the Delphi method are formulated. These tools are employed for defining a plan to deploy sustainable bioenergy technologies in Colombia until 2030. The plan consists of a set of long-term goals, milestones, barriers and action items identified by over 30 experts for different bioenergy technology areas. Fourthly, a modeling framework to evaluate the impacts that long-term deployment of bioenergy technologies might cause on the energy supply and demand, emissions and land use at a country level is proposed. The method combines a quantitative and a qualitative element. The qualitative element integrates outcomes of technology roadmapping with scenario analysis to investigate various storylines with different underlying assumptions on policy measures. The quantitative element comprises four integrated tools, namely the energy system model (ESM), the land use and trade model (LUTM), an economic model, and an external climate model. These tools quantify in an integrated manner the impacts of implementing different scenarios on the energy system, emissions and land-use at a country level as well as the linkages with the economy and climate. Results of the study case of Colombia suggest that the deployment of technologies for biomethane production, power generation & CHP should be prioritized. These technology routes avoid methane release, substitute fossil fuels, reduce CO2 emissions and maximize the GHG reductions per incremental land of bioenergy

Large-scale integration of renewable energy sources in the future energy system of Colombia

In recent years, governments around the world have been increasing their attention on energy supply policies. These policies are focused towards three main energy goals that define the energy trilemma: security of supply, affordability and environmental sustainability. In the case of Colombia, the diversification of the energy mix including larger shares of renewable energy sources (RES) is a significant part of the national energy strategy towards a sustainable and more secure energy system. Historically, the country has relied on the intensive use of hydropower and fossil fuels as the main energy sources. Colombia has a huge renewables potential, and therefore the exploration of different pathways for their integration is required. The aim of this study is to assess the integration of variable renewable technologies and flexibility options into national energy systems by analysing future scenarios (towards 2030 and 2040). EnergyPLAN was the modelling tool employed for building the country’s model and simulate the reference year scenario and future alternatives. The study was divided in three research topics for its analysis: initially, the impacts of increasing shares of variable renewable sources in the energy system towards 2030 were analysed using five alternatives scenarios. Subsequently, a techno-economic optimisation was performed in order to assess the combined effects of large-scale energy storage and cross-border interconnections in the power system. Finally, the impact of road transport electrification in supporting the energy transition in the longer term (2040) was evaluated for the national system. The results showed that an increase in the shares of wind, solar and bioenergy combined with energy storage, electric vehicles and a strong interconnected market could achieve significant reductions in CO2 emissions and savings in the total fuel consumption of the country. The results of this work will be of much assistance to policymakers that are developing a roadmap towards low carbon energy systems in Colombia and other countries with similar potential and characteristics

ECOS 2012

The 8-volume set contains the Proceedings of the 25th ECOS 2012 International Conference, Perugia, Italy, June 26th to June 29th, 2012. ECOS is an acronym for Efficiency, Cost, Optimization and Simulation (of energy conversion systems and processes), summarizing the topics covered in ECOS: Thermodynamics, Heat and Mass Transfer, Exergy and Second Law Analysis, Process Integration and Heat Exchanger Networks, Fluid Dynamics and Power Plant Components, Fuel Cells, Simulation of Energy Conversion Systems, Renewable Energies, Thermo-Economic Analysis and Optimisation, Combustion, Chemical Reactors, Carbon Capture and Sequestration, Building/Urban/Complex Energy Systems, Water Desalination and Use of Water Resources, Energy Systems- Environmental and Sustainability Issues, System Operation/ Control/Diagnosis and Prognosis, Industrial Ecology

Energy, Science and Technology 2015. The energy conference for scientists and researchers. Book of Abstracts, EST, Energy Science Technology, International Conference & Exhibition, 20-22 May 2015, Karlsruhe, Germany

We are pleased to present you this Book of Abstracts, which contains the submitted contributions to the "Energy, Science and Technology Conference & Exhibition EST 2015". The EST 2015 took place from May, 20th until May, 22nd 2015 in Karlsruhe, Germany, and brought together many different stakeholders, who do research or work in the broad field of "Energy". Renewable energies have to present a relevant share in a sustainable energy system and energy efficiency has to guarantee that conventional as well as renewable energy sources are transformed and used in a reasonable way. The adaption of existing infrastructure and the establishment of new systems, storages and grids are necessary to face the challenges of a changing energy sector. Those three main topics have been the fundament of the EST 2015, which served as a platform for national and international attendees to discuss and interconnect the various disciplines within energy research and energy business. We thank the authors, who summarised their high-quality and important results and experiences within one-paged abstracts and made the conference and this book possible. The abstracts of this book have been peer-reviewed by an international Scientific Programme Committee and are ordered by type of presentation (oral or poster) and topics. You can navigate by using either the table of contents (page 3) or the conference programme (starting page 4 for oral presentations and page 21 for posters respectively)

Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Forecasting

In recent years, several projects and studies have been launched towards the development and use of new methodologies, in order to assess, monitor, and support clean forms of energy. Accurate estimation of the available energy potential is of primary importance, but is not always easy to achieve. The present Special Issue on ‘Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Forecasting’ aims to provide a holistic approach to the above issues, by presenting multidisciplinary methodologies and tools that are able to support research projects and meet today’s technical, socio-economic, and decision-making needs. In particular, research papers, reviews, and case studies on the following subjects are presented: wind, wave and solar energy; biofuels; resource assessment of combined renewable energy forms; numerical models for renewable energy forecasting; integrated forecasted systems; energy for buildings; sustainable development; resource analysis tools and statistical models; extreme value analysis and forecasting for renewable energy resources